Keadaan ekonomi dan politik di Argentina menarik sekali kalau dibandingkan dengan Indonesia.
Argentina telah mengalami krisis keuangan dan ekonomi yang berat beberapa tahun yang lalu sebagai dampak krisis di regio (setelah mata uangnya dipeg ke US dollar -currency board system di tahun 1991). Utang luaar dan dan dalam negerinya besar sekali. Hubungan dengan IMF menjadi sukar. Di tahun 2003 Argentina mendapat Presiden baru dari kalangan Partai Peronista (seperti Golkar di Indonesia). Ia tidak berani menunggak angsuran ke IMF, Bank Dunia dan Bank Pembangunan Amerika, akan tetapi utang kepada swasta asing "dikemplang". Tetapi, kinerja ekonomi tahun 2004 bagus sekali dan laju pertumbuhannya mencapai 8% setahun, dipicu oleh ekspor yang naik double digit dan PMA yang masuk. Pertanyaan: mengapa PMA suka masuk di dalam situasi yang masih penuh ketidakpastian itu? Diperkirakan bahwa laju pertumbuhan yang sangat tinggi ini tidfak akan bertahan di tahun 2005, akan tetapi economic confidencenya sudah established.
Semua ini mungkin relevan untuk Indonesia yang kelak mungkin juga akan punya Presiden baru.
Economic and Market Analysis September 5, 2003
Country Analysis & Commentary Argentina
Andres Lederman (212) 816-7896
New York
Beyond the First 100 Days
As President Kirchner completes 100 days in office, the country faces a series of important local elections that could consolidate or undermine the fragile political stability.
Some of the most important of these elections occur before September 14. Allies of Kirchner are pitted against candidates associated with his main Peronist rivals.
At the same time, a new agreement with the IMF is hanging in the balance as the September 9 rollover date approaches.
We continue to expect that an agreement with the Fund will be reached after tough negotiations are concluded.
Politics and the IMF
Political risk is rising as President Nestor Kirchner completes his first 100 days in office. Infighting within the government and the Peronist party (PJ) is occurring in the context of a busy electoral season, which began in August and continues through the end of the year. In this busy political period, governors and congressional officials will be selected in a series of local elections. The next few weeks pose particularly important challenges for Kirchner in the city of Buenos Aires and in the Provinces of Buenos Aires and Santa Fe, where elections will take place by September 14. In fact, important electoral developments take place at the same time that the government needs to make important policy decisions to reach an agreement with the IMF (by about September 9, when US$2.9 billion in debt payments to the Fund come due).
President Kirchner is trying to leverage his high approval rating to elect a large number of allies to office to gain a freer hand from his main Peronist rival, Eduardo Duhalde. If he can strengthen himself in these elections, Kirchner may be able to deliver on the fiscal and structural reform required by the Fund. If Kirchner’s authority is diluted as a result of these elections, then the country’s hard won political stability could be at risk.
